Waiting for the next leg up in stocks seems to be a given if you listen and read the vested interests, which is just about anyone providing market information these days. Never have so many wanted so much for things to break out on the upside. I have heard endless price forecasts based on the “golden cross” where the 50 day average crosses the 200 day average. It is hard to believe people actually rely on these tools but given the weak state of hedge fund mechanics it is not a surprise. Having looked at enough data for 20 lifetimes it is clear this trick of the trade comes from the secular bull markets developed from the great run originating from the Great Depression. What they don’t tell you is the cost against any future gains incurred when the two averages cross back and forth, over and over again before breaking out. I guess they call that the “golden shower”.
Anyway, golden cross, money on the sidelines, and describing losses of more than 50% by Greek bond holders as concessions and not defaults are all part of the kool-aid being sucked down. It’s a default and CDSs will be exercised in one fashion or another.
Markets have a great habit of using the formula, ” this equals that,” and as a result, repeatedly makes great errors in pricing.
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