10/15
Prediction markets have rallied to Trump’s side over the last 10 days.
“Polls show the U.S. presidential contest as neck and neck. But a popular new way of tracking the race — and betting on it — is telling a different story.”(NYTimes Deal Book)
These betting markets reveal real monetary wagers on outcomes and some suggest they are a better predictors of those particular races.
Yes they are predictors, but so is every equity curve of every stock, index, and option ever traded. The tip top of a chart at a given moment would seem at the time as the indication of future gains.
Betting is a game of risk where losing is the most likely outcome. Polling, even with issues, would still be the most likely predictor of an outcome rather than a thinly traded and poorly populated mechanism.
Whichever candidate wins the election it is doubtful betting sites will have more accurately predicted the outcomes.
Risk From Others
WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia, China and Iran are increasingly relying on criminal networks to lead cyber espionage and hacking operations against adversaries like the U.S., according to a report on digital threats published Tuesday by Microsoft.
10/14
Missing immune cells may explain why COVID-19 vaccine protection quickly wanes
Neither vaccinations nor immunity from infections seem to thwart SARS-CoV-2 for long. The frequency of new infections within a few months of a previous bout or a shot is one of COVID-19’s most vexing puzzles. Now, scientists have learned that a little-known type of immune cell in the bone marrow may play a major role in this failure.
TOP 6 Long ES SCORES and how they finished The Year
CoverRisk scores markets each month on a scale from -50 to +50. The top 6 scores accordingly at this point in October for the ES since 2008; 2013 +43, 2020 +32, 2019 +31, 2017 +31, 2021 +29, 2024 +29.
10/4
Greatest Marginal Advantage
Cover risk by identifying the greatest marginal advantage revealed by data sets.
In the current environment, everyone is being presented with political polling for the up coming general election. Since 2016, pollsters have modified methodology in an effort to more accurately capture voting intentions. However, when tweaking algorithms to find a cure for previous under vote failings, a choking of the polling volatility may miss a wider spread.
The stock indexes have repeatedly thinned out the strength of underlying data, but each time the greatest marginal advantage has remained to the upside. Strength scores have improved while Middle East tensions have increased. The hedge funds don’t mind driving with their eyes closed, but outcomes can be messy.