RiskValue Warning

Back on October 4th, 1982, I was a floor trader in the soybean pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. American farmers had just experienced record harvests and daily trading ranges on the grain floor were narrow.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average had made a low just below 800 that August in what was to become another powerful upside leg of the bull trend which started in the early 30’s.  While corrections have appeared, some substantial, the averages and the indexes such as the S&P 500 have steadily marched through high valuation perils and warnings from performance legends.

There is a strong indication of a major top is in the making during the first quarter of 2018. Data from CoverRisk.com which operates the core algorithms of QRiskValue.com says that beginning this last October the premium of what it calls the riskvalue of the S&P 500 was in absolute terms nearing an equivalent to the discount in the riskvalue which  appeared in November of 2008.  The actual low of the break came on March 6th 2009.