Author: will

  • AAPL Weekly Close 207 What’s it worth? Over Crowded Above 178 Trailing Value 132 Our identification of risk down to 140 last year was spot on. New money at risk to at least to 178 and maybe trailing value.

  • Trump Demands China End Agricultural Tariffs Means All Is Lost

    The China Trade talks are dead.  There will be no China trade deal that amounts to anything.  Trump has set the conditions by which he can claim non compliance by China and an excuse for why there will be no trade deal of any significance.   As they might say in China soon, crazy market will…

  • Wise or Wuss

    The Fed this week attempted to release itself from Trump’s interest rate bullying by declaring a policy of obfuscation. Moving forward, the Fed may now claim it cannot be blamed for causing any stock market declines because of a tightening policy on interest rates. Many will claim this new unclear path on interest rates is…

  • Stocks To Normalize, Which Is Bad For Stocks

    A broad market retreat is making a path toward normalized values where subscribers of shares made at premium prices must come to terms with the possibility of not seeing a profit for a considerable period of time, maybe years.  Further, the perception and that Trump was the beginning of something big for share prices might…

  • Market Again Rejecting 2900 Setting Major Top

    January’s high and September 27 through October 3 bull trap has now set in place a major obstacle for the bull market in stocks.

  • S&P 500

      S&P 500 viewed through the EMini has reached the lowest score (25) on our Fear100 metric tracked over the last 10 and a half years.  Over/Under is +300 points and the highest reading in 10 years. What could end pure joy?  Machines lay an  egg or eggs. Place a bet that the speed to…

  • AAPL Is Overvalued

    Forget the company’s financial strength and growth potential, IPhones sales and expanding service business.  All have been deep baked into the stock price.  However killing momentum requires trapping fearless investors at lower prices at which they are unwilling to liquidate holdings. With an Over/Under of +50 AAPL is vulnerable.

  • AAPL GOOG MSFT

    Price MO Fear 100 AAPL 232 Up 13.6 Value 172 O/U 60 GOOG 1200 UP 33 Value 1032 O/U 168 MSFT 115 UP 25 Value 83 O/U 32

  • Potential Constitutional Crisis Moves Markets Lower

    Markets moved lower as the specter of political turmoil and a possible constitutional crisis over the coming months initiated large sell programs. Also, growing concerns that recent tax legislation passed by Congress would hamper the ability to auction the projected massive debt obligations without continued significant interest rate increases. The S&P 500 riskvalue remains high.

  • RiskValue Warning

    Back on October 4th, 1982, I was a floor trader in the soybean pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. American farmers had just experienced record harvests and daily trading ranges on the grain floor were narrow.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average had made a low just below 800 that August in what was to…