Month: September 2007

The impact of the housing on all markets is the topic of much discussion. The glacial movement of an illiquid market is hard to scope. It is fair to say that the all markets are in a large part tied to housing and the debt equity cash driver created over the last ten years. Since…

Commodities such as crude, wheat, and soybeans have entered the idiot rally phase where the lack of selling provides the bull with that bullet proof feeling. These prices are reflective of the overall environment perpetuated by the Fed for years. Money is free and tales of tight supplies have captured the attention of the limited…

Markets continued their rise today after the Fed accommodations yesterday. Clearly one who dislikes confrontation, Bernanke capitulated to cries to save the trading houses and banks from themselves. The dollar continued its death dive as all the elements toward serious inflation have been put into place. The experts on wall street can assure you all…

Just call him Alan. While Bernanke would like to fix the looming inflation problem, he lacks the fortitude to accomplish it. So what has changed since the Fed’s previous stance on interest rates? Nothing. Starting with Greenspan, the Fed has worn out several pairs of knee pads giving wall street comfort. But hey, the Fed…

There is no doubt the Fed would be satisfied to see most futures charts head south for a time. The ten year, oil, wheat, gold, indexes, and others sliding in a dull but hefty correction as the Fedprovides an inflation fighting environment for the years ahead. This kind of squeeze on speculative investment initiated shortly…

Somewhere in the technical nature of tops the marginal advantage turns to the sellers just a stories about absolute demand and waning supply are finally accepted. Whatever the market, this usually is followed by rapid declines and emptying P&Ls of the ever believing bulls. Commodities across the board have been in the bolt phase and…

As mentioned in other posts, managers are buying NQ100 for the long haul. Along with treasuries, the NQ100 is viewed as risk appropriate in an environment where performances have been hurt by various contrived strategies. Traders will look at Friday’s commercial paper action to get a read on the taste for business debt. Despite positive…

Given the entire discussion over sub-prime/commercial paper implications, major brokerage house debt trading at junk status, and the supposed Fed’s unwillingness to aggressively cut the fed funds rate, the bear would seem to be in the position to drive the DJI, SP500, and the NQ100 lower. New recession worries would certainly provide the bear market…

Today another range trade day with all indexes avoiding a test of the 50% retracement. It would seem hard to make a two hundred point break boring but the market succeeded. Big liquidation never seems to show up and there is enough interest in buying breaks that the downside is limited. Look for the markets…

The Fed would like to open one window and close another. The first window being the discount rate strategy which soothes some of the liquidity issues for banks and more importantly promotes the image of a watchful central bank. On the other hand, closing the window on the Greenspan era is something Bernanke is trying…